692
WTPZ42 KNHC 240835
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2024
KRISTY LOOKS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE THIS EVENING, AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS CLOUDED OVER. THERE ARE HINTS
IN INFRARED IMAGERY THAT THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO
DEFINITIVELY SHOW THIS. THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 H, AND
BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 130 KT. THE
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER
OVERPASSES SHOWING THAT KRISTY HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE LARGER IN SIZE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/17 KT. KRISTY IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SHARPER TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY 48 H AS KRISTY MOVES
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE MID- TO -UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART, WITH THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK, AND IT LIES NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A CONDUCIVE
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H. BASED ON THIS AND AN
EXPECTATION THAT THE HURRICANE WILL COMPLETE AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION
DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 36 H, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH MORE
HOSTILE, WITH STRONG SHEAR, A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS, AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE. KRISTY SHOULD LOSE ITS
CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96 H, AND WHILE THE FORECAST
INCLUDES A 120 H POINT AS A REMNANT LOW THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE
SYSTEM WILL DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH BY THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 14.1N 118.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.9N 123.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 19.5N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 21.1N 131.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.7N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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