406
WTPZ42 KNHC 242033
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
500 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2024
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CIRCULAR EYE THAT HAS BEEN
WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CLEARING.
WHILE THE INNER EYE HAS NOT BEEN AS CLEAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
EITHER INCREASED OR HELD STEADY, WITH A DATA-T VALUE OF T/7.0 AND
T/6.5, FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AS WELL. USING AN AVERAGE OF THESE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 140 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THEREFORE,
KRISTY HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
KRISTY'S FORWARD MOTION REMAINS STEADY, ESTIMATED AT 270/14 KT WHILE
BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH TO THE
WEST BEGINS TO INFLUENCE KRISTY'S MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE REMNANTS THEN
TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT, CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS, BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, KRISTY LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHORT TERM, ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM HAS ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT THEN RAPIDLY BECOMES HOSTILE AS THE HURRICANE
ENTERS AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRIER AIR, AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS
INSISTENT ON RAPID WEAKENING OCCURRING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL-SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO MIRRORS THIS
TREND, SUGGESTING THAT KRISTY WILL LOSE CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H, DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 H, AND OPEN
INTO A TROUGH BY 120 H. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS
THESE TRENDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 14.2N 121.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY/B. ADAMS
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