105
WTPZ42 KNHC 250236
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2024
KRISTY REMAINS A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE. A RING OF INTENSE DEEP
CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER, THE EYE
ITSELF HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM ABOUT 130 KT TO 140
KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, AND THE SLIGHTLY DEGRADED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 135 KT. AN
ASCAT-C PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT KRISTY WAS A
LITTLE LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, BUT STILL SMALLER THAN
AVERAGE.
THE MAJOR HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS KRISTY MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
CAUSING THE STEERING CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
KRISTY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AS IT REMAINS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR, RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE, AND
OVER WARM 28 DEGREE C WATERS. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF MUCH
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND IVCN CONSENSUS MODELS. KRISTY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 14.7N 122.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 124.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/MOORE
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