407
WTPZ42 KNHC 250835
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2024
KRISTY IS STARTING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR,
WITH THE EYE BECOMING RAGGED AND CLOUD-FILLED AND THE SURROUNDING
CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND NOW GENERALLY RANGE FROM 115-140 KT.
BASED ON THE THE DECREASING TREND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED
TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 130 KT.
KRISTY IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE INITIAL MOTION IS
295/12 KT. DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GOES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE SHEARS APART, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD BETWEEN 60-72 H. THE
MODELS HAVE AGAIN TRENDED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY FROM
24-48 H. THUS, THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN
NUDGED NORTHWARD. THE REMNANTS OF KRISTY SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE IS GOING TO INCREASE FROM
LIGHT-TO-MODERATE THIS MORNING TO STRONG BY 24 H. IN ADDITION, THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BASED ON THIS, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 12 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CYCLONE'S LIFE. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 H, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY 72 H. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
LOW TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 96 H, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT IN SHOWING DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 15.2N 123.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.2N 125.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 23.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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