186
WTPZ42 KNHC 251438
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2024
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS TOLL
ON KRISTY AS THE SYSTEM IS LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD FILLED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP
WITHIN THE EYEWALL, ALTHOUGH A RECENT AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICTS THE INNER CORE IS STARTING TO ERODE. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DECREASING STEADILY THIS
MORNING AND RANGE FROM 105-115 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 110 KT.
KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION
OF 300/12 KT. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STEERED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A
REMNANT LOW, KRISTY'S FORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE
NORTHWARD, TOWARDS THE CORRECTED AND SIMPLE CONSENSUS TRACK AIDS.
THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF KRISTY IS ONLY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
RISE, WITH COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS, STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SIMULATED SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS
THAT KRISTY WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION LATE THIS
WEEKEND, BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 60 H, AND DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH BY 96 H. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THESE MODEL TRENDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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