267
WTPZ42 KNHC 252037
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2024
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THAT KRISTY IS
STRUGGLING WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, AS
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE, DISPLACING MOST
OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE EYEWALL HAS
WEAKENED AS WELL, WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THE INNER CORE
DEGRADATION WAS FURTHER CONFIRMED BY A RECENT GMI MICROWAVE PASS.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET
THIS AFTERNOON AND RANGE BETWEEN 90-105 KT. GIVEN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, INNER STRUCTURE DEGRADATION, AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
305/12 KT. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW,
THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING KRISTY CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE
UNFAVORABLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, WITH COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE, STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SIMULATED SATELLITE
DATA DEPICT THAT KRISTY WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION LATE
THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 H, AND
DISSIPATING INTO A TROUGH BY 72 H. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THESE MODEL TRENDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 125.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.0N 127.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 22.0N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.8N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0600Z 22.7N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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