275
WTPZ42 KNHC 260233
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2024
KRISTY'S DEEPEST CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR, DIAGNOSED AT 30 KT BY
UW-CIMSS, ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE STILL TRYING TO
FORM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW RANGE BETWEEN 80-100 KT, AND
KRISTY'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT A BLEND OF 90 KT. RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS EVEN
STRONGER SHEAR--AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES--OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRENDS AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
MODEL-SIMULATED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT KRISTY SHOULD LOSE ITS
DEEP CONVECTION BY SUNDAY, AND THE CYCLONE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH ON MONDAY.
KRISTY IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD (310/13 KT), STEERED BY A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KRISTY ON A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A
REMNANT LOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY WHEN IT RUNS INTO A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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