152
WTPZ42 KNHC 260837
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2024
KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. WHILE THE HURRICANE IS
STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION, THIS CONVECTION
IS BECOMING STRETCHED POLEWARD AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED FROM DECREASING FASTER THIS
MORNING, BUT TAKING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR
DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS IS NOW UP TO 30
KT, AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE 40 KT IN 24 H. IN ADDITION,
KRISTY IS NOW CROSSING THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND HEADING FOR EVEN COOLER
OCEAN WATERS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN RAPID
WEAKENING, WITH THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO VERTICALLY DECOUPLE LATER
TODAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BLEND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS, SHOWING KRISTY WEAKENING
BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
LIKELY NOT FAR BEHIND ON SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE CEASES TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, AS DEPICTED BY BOTH GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL-HURRICANE MODELS. THE REMNANT LOW LOW SHOULD FINALLY OPEN
UP INTO A TROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THIS MORNING AT
320/13 KT. WHILE THE PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA STEERING KRISTY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S VERTICALLY DEEP VORTEX WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT
24 H. THIS DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX LEAVING
BEHIND KRISTY'S SURFACE CIRCULATION, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY SLOW DOWN
AND TURN WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK, AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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