084
WTPZ42 KNHC 261434
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2024
KRISTY IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST,
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG
SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT, CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST ESTIMATES. FURTHER RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE
TO A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND KRISTY MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE, SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. KRISTY SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN ABOUT 24 H.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT
THIS MORNING. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TODAY
WHEN THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES DECOUPLED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. KRISTY SHOULD THEN TURN WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE THAT DAY AS A REMNANT LOW. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS
STEADY IN SHOWING THIS COURSE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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