993
WTPZ42 KNHC 262035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2024
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KRISTY CONTINUES TO DECAY, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 55
KT USING A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES. A
CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR ALONG WITH COOL WATER TEMPS SHOULD
LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING, AND KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. KRISTY
SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. OTHER THAN
A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT, LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST, AND THE NEW PREDICTION LIES JUST WEST OF THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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