679
WTPZ42 KNHC 270234
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2024
KRISTY'S LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS STARTING TO LOSE SOME DEFINITION,
BUT THERE HAS STILL BEEN BURSTING OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND 3.0 FROM SAB,
COMBINED WITH OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES, SUPPORT A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR, AS WELL AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24
DEGREES CELSIUS, KRISTY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODEL
FIELDS SHOW THE CIRCULATION OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH BY 36 HOURS,
AND THAT IS WHEN DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN.
KRISTY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWED DOWN FURTHER
(330/10 KT). HOWEVER, NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 21.5N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.3N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page