967
WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
200 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2024
CORRECT STORM TO CYCLONE IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED MORE THAN 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASCAT PASS EARLY THIS
MORNING INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, AND DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 18Z WAS T2.5, AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 30
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS WESTWARD AT 270/6
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT IS STEERED BY A BROAD
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT
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