586
WTPZ43 KNHC 020234
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2024
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR OR A LITTLE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY, AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/6 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING ITS LIFETIME AS IT IS
STEERED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO, BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN, THE EARLIER
GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE LATEST AIDS, THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND
OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER, AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 H.
WHILE THIS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE, THE REGIONAL-HURRICANE
MODELS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS
TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND THEREFORE
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER, ANY STRENGTHENING
WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH, AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS DO FORECAST SOME INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER 48 H, INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THIS SMALL SYSTEM
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. A 72-H POINT AS A
REMNANT LOW WAS ADDED BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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