115
WTPZ43 KNHC 020842
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2024
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LIKELY EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH A COLD DENSE OVERCAST. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT TONIGHT, AND AS A RESULT THE
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 40
KT, WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB
RANGE FROM 30-35 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LANE, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
LANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 270/6 KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THERE WAS A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THIS CYCLE, AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK PREDICTION WAS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW LANE
TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY. HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE STORM ON SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD THEN
INDUCE WEAKENING OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LANE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
IN 48 H DUE TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL
AIR, AND IT COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST IF THE GFS
SOLUTION IS CORRECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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