214
WTNT42 KNHC 021436
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
300 PM GMT SAT NOV 02 2024
PATTY HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A TIGHT CORE WITH A RING OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. ON A LARGER SCALE, HOWEVER,
THE STORM HAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COOL AND DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE CORE AND IT IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THESE
MIXED TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTAINING PATTY'S SUBTROPICAL STATUS. ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS
AGO SHOWED PEAK WINDS NEAR 50 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND
GIVEN POTENTIAL UNDERSAMPLING DUE TO THE INSTRUMENT'S RESOLUTION,
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE WIND RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.
PATTY IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT CURRENTLY LIES IN A
REGION OF INSTABILITY BENEATH ITS PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND IN
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENING, RESULTING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND LEAD TO POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS IN THE
SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 130/11 KT. A FASTER EASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON, TAKING THE STORM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
AZORES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TOWARD WESTERN EUROPE. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
2. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 39.0N 32.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 38.2N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 37.8N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 37.8N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1200Z 38.7N 17.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 40.0N 13.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 41.6N 10.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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