980
WTNT42 KNHC 022032
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
900 PM GMT SAT NOV 02 2024
PATTY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM
HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CORE, THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT AS
COLD AS THEY WERE EARLIER TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS STILL CO-LOCATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND DRY AND STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE CORE REGION. THESE MIXED TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PATTY'S SUBTROPICAL DESIGNATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT
DATA, BUT THIS IS ABOVE THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. PATTY IS
LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTH OF THE WESTERNMOST AZORES, AND IT WILL
BE PASSING NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS,
LEAVING THE STORM IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS CORE AND
DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT, AND THE STORM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4
DAYS.
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 125/16 KT. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT, TAKING PATTY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES
THROUGH SUNDAY. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT
TOWARD WESTERN EUROPE. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND
THIS FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
2. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH
SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 38.0N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 37.5N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 37.3N 23.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 37.8N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0600Z 40.5N 11.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 41.7N 9.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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