234
WTPZ43 KNHC 022037
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2024
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT LANE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND APPEARS MORE DISORGANIZED. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CANOPY HAS DETERIORATED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS STARTING TO INCREASE BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES, AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AROUND 35 TO 45 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND USING A BLEND OF THESE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 270/6 KT, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM
IS STEERED BY A A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO
THE LEFT.
SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY, THOUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS
SHEAR COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LANE IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 H,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IT COULD DISSIPATE EVEN
SOONER THAN FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 11.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 11.4N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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