162
WTPZ43 KNHC 030241
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2024
LANE'S PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS QUICKLY BECOMING
DISHEVELED. THIS EVENING, A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ATTEMPTED TO REFORM A LITTLE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. HOWEVER,
AN EARLIER AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS AT 2155 UTC SUGGESTED THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WAS STARTING TO SEPARATE FROM THIS DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
MODERATE MID- TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A PARTIAL ASCAT-B
PASS DID SHOW WINDS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE CENTER AT AROUND 18 UTC,
BUT GIVEN THE DEGRADATION IN LANE'S STRUCTURE SINCE THAT TIME, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AIDT AND SATCON. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN LANE'S DEMISE AS IT LOSES IDENTITY WITHIN THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ). THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS
LANE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 H AND OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN
48 H. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE FACT SEVERAL HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL TRACKERS
LOSE THE VORTEX OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LANE STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD, AT AN ESTIMATED
270/5 KT. AS LANE BECOMES A SHALLOW CIRCULATION, IT WILL BE
PRIMARILY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE ITCZ, LEADING TO A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL THE VORTEX DISSIPATES. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR TRACK, GIVEN THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE THIS CYCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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