947
WTPZ43 KNHC 030833
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024
100 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2024
LANE IS FADING FAST. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOSING DEFINITION, AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT AT
MOST. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH WAS DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER, IS DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE
CURRENT DEGRADATION OF CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AT AROUND 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
TO CONFORM TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 11.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 11.1N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0600Z 10.9N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 10.7N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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