930
WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
900 AM GMT SUN NOV 03 2024
THE CENTER OF PATTY PASSED SOUTH OF TERCEIRA ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW APPROACHING SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AZORES. SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
STORM HAS DEGRADED, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LIMITED CONVECTION
THAT HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED
ON THESE TRENDS AND DECREASING SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INTENSITY OF PATTY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
SCATTEROMETER PASSES EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD PROVIDE MORE
CLARITY ON THE STORM'S WIND STRUCTURE AND CURRENT INTENSITY.
PATTY IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD (090/16 KT) WITHIN MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE STORM IS ALREADY SHOWING
ILL EFFECTS FROM WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ON ITS WEST SIDE, AND
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE MORE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND
PATTY COULD LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THEN, THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL AND EVENTUALLY OPEN
INTO A TROUGH BY MIDWEEK NEAR THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
TODAY, WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
2. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AZORES THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 37.9N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 37.7N 22.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 14.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 10.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 42.1N 8.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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