356
WTNT42 KNHC 031434
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
300 PM GMT SUN NOV 03 2024
PATTY IS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AZORES, WITH THE CENTER
NOW JUST EAST OF THE EASTERNMOST ISLANDS. THE STORM IS ALSO ON
ITS WAY TO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ABSENT FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. RECENT ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B
PASSES SHOW PEAK WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THAT
DATA AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTH SIDE, JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERNMOST AZORES.
VERY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STABLE AIR, AND COOL
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE WEAKENING, AND PATTY WILL LIKELY
DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
DISSIPATION HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO 60 H BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
PATTY IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KT IN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW, AND AN
EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN EUROPE IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 37.5N 24.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 37.3N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 38.3N 16.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 39.7N 12.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 40.8N 10.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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