477
WTNT42 KNHC 040236
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
300 AM GMT MON NOV 04 2024
PATTY HAS CONTINUED PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES. THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN 03/2138 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICT A MORE COMPACT
CYCLONE WITH A CONFINED RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS THAN EARLIER IN THE
SYSTEM'S LIFE. PATTY IS ALSO NO LONGER CO-LOCATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS EARLIER RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS, PATTY HAS MADE THE
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AS HIGH AS 39 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE
EASTWARD, OR 085/17 KT. PATTY IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY, AND ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CLOSER TO THE LATEST
TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ALL GUIDANCE INSISTS PATTY WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF WHEN PATTY IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS
CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SLIGHTLY,
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FALLING APART AND
WEAKENING IN A DAY OR TWO. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
PATTY SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND DISSIPATE BY HOUR 48, AROUND
THE TIME THAT THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA. DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, SOME RAINFALL IMPACTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN FROM PATTY'S REMNANTS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PORTUGAL AND WESTERN SPAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM PATTY OR ITS
REMNANTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 37.7N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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