622
WTNT33 KNHC 040254
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1000 PM EST SUN NOV 03 2024
..SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY
..FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24-36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON
MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND A TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD
IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR
JAMAICA BY LATE MONDAY AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. THE SYSTEM
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT PASSES NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT
HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT3.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA BY
LATE MONDAY.
RAINFALL: HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN CUBA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
UP TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA AND CUBA, WITH MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MID TO LATE WEEK.
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA ON
MONDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 100 AM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM EST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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