539
WTNT42 KNHC 040848
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024
900 AM GMT MON NOV 04 2024
THIS MORNING'S METSAT-10 SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF
A FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND WITH -30C TO -40C CLOUD TOPS DISPLACED TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED ELONGATED SURFACE CENTER. A BLEND OF THE
TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE AND UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH PATTY'S CLOUD PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF A SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE, THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATES AN ASYMMETRIC DEEP COLD CORE THERMAL STRUCTURE.
DESPITE THE SUB-23C OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE VERY COLD
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN LIKELY SUPPORTING
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE REMAINING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. THE VERTICAL TILT WITH
HEIGHT IS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
AND PATTY SHOULD SPIN DOWN WHILE LOSING WHAT REMAINS OF THE
CONVECTION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH PATTY OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH BY THE 36
HR PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
PATTY'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EASTWARD, OR 070/17 KT.
A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. BETWEEN LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PORTUGAL AND WESTERN SPAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM PATTY OR ITS
REMNANTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 38.2N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page