395
WTNT43 KNHC 050854
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
400 AM EST TUE NOV 05 2024
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RAFAEL IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED,
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT LIMITED AT THIS TIME, WITH A RATHER SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN EARLIER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION INDICATED FALLING CENTRAL PRESSURE, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
APPROACHING 50 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT THAT VALUE,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, BASED ON
THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE RAFAEL A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 325/11 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL
MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, CROSSING WESTERN CUBA AND
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
THEREAFTER, THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE WITH AN INCREASING SPREAD
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH TIME. THE ECMWF
SIMULATION SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S., RESULTING IN RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES THAT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN 3-4 DAYS, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS A LESS CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL IN THE
4-5 DAY FORECAST.
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, WITH HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITY. THE VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
INDICES FROM OUR MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RI
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, SO THE SHORTER-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MIGHT BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. AFTER RAFAEL MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO, HOWEVER, DRIER AIR AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD HALT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE 3-5 DAY
FORECAST, AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY WHEN IT PASSES
NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT WHERE DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES ARE EXPECTED. RAFAEL SHOULD REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
REGION, WHERE A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
3. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, IMPACTS RAFAEL COULD
BRING TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RESIDENTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD REGULARLY MONITOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
4. RAFAEL WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMANS, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CUBA. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN JAMAICA AND CUBA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MID TO
LATE WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 20.3N 80.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.2N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.8N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 27.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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