882  
WTNT33 KNHC 051739  
TCPAT3  
 
BULLETIN  
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024  
100 PM EST TUE NOV 05 2024  
   
..CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW WEST OF THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA
 
 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...18.6N 79.1W  
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA  
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES  
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
NONE.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CAYMAN ISLANDS  
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO, ARTEMISA, LA HABANA, MAYABEQUE,  
MATANZAS, AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* JAMAICA  
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA, CIENFUEGOS, SANCTI SPIRITUS,  
AND CIEGO DE AVILA  
* LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO WEST OF THE  
CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE  
* DRY TORTUGAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED  
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF  
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE  
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE  
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND THE SOUTHERN  
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL.  
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED  
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE  
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA  
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY  
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.  
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  
----------------------  
AT 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS  
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (23 KM/H). A GENERALLY  
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE  
FORECAST TRACK, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN  
JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS. STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT  
24 TO 36 HOURS, AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT  
PASSES NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT  
MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.  
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)  
FROM THE CENTER.  
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE  
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).  
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE  
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO  
HEADER WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT  
HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT3.SHTML  
 
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY  
THIS EVENING AND ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF  
YOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN  
JAMAICA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF  
WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS ON WEDNESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER  
EAST IN CENTRAL CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
RAINFALL: HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN  
ISLANDS INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS  
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UP  
TO 10 INCHES ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH COULD  
LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.  
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER AND  
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS.  
 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH  
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM  
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF  
 
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA TONIGHT.  
STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL  
TIDE LEVELS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY, AND COULD RAISE WATER  
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS  
OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA IN THE HURRICANE  
WARNING AREA, INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY  
DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING  
INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING  
HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK  
SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...  
 
DRY TORTUGAS...1-3 FT  
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...1-2 FT  
 
TORNADOES: A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER THE KEYS AND  
SOUTHWESTERNMOST FLORIDA MAINLAND.  
 
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF  
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE  
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.  
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM EST.  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
 
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