502
WTNT43 KNHC 061453
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1000 AM EST WED NOV 06 2024
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING WITH THE EYE BECOMING APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.
RADAR DATA FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND REPORTS FROM BOTH NOAA AND
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATED RAFAEL HAS A DOUBLE EYEWALL
STRUCTURE. BOTH THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANES MEASURED PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO AROUND 963 MB ON THE LAST
PASS OF THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT AROUND 1245 UTC. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE AND EARLIER TAIL-DOPPLER
RADAR DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN SET AT 95 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE STORM BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAFAEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
WHILE IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA. THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING
WARM WATERS AND REMAIN IN LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. THE APPARENT BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
COULD EASE THE RECENT RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT IT APPEARS
VERY LIKELY THAT RAFAEL WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST WHEN THE STORM CROSSES CUBA, BUT RAFAEL IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ARE LIKELY TO RESULT
IN WEAKENING, HOWEVER A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE GULF COULD
RESULT IN LESS HOSTILE CONDITIONS, AND THERE IS LARGER-THAN-NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RAFAEL'S INTENSITY LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/11 KT. RAFAEL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAFAEL TO TURN
MORE WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 60 H, BUT THERE IS
INCREASING SPREAD AFTER THAT TIME. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
NEW FORECAST LIES NORTH OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS AND ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES
WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION, WHERE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE EXPECTED.
2. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
3. RAFAEL WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.
4. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, IMPACTS RAFAEL COULD
BRING TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD REGULARLY MONITOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 21.4N 81.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER BROWN
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