501
WTPZ44 KNHC 061453
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
800 AM MST WED NOV 06 2024
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN TRACKING A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST. BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC ON TUESDAY,
DEEP CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR OVER 15 HOURS. TAFB HAS CLASSIFIED THIS
SYSTEM WITH A T2.0, INDICATING THAT IS HAS REACHED THE NECESSARY
REQUIREMENTS OF MAINTAINING DEEP, ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE,
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. SCATTEROMETER DATA IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 KT. A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED
TO TURN THE DEPRESSION EASTWARD LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BRIEFLY ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
ON THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE
AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.
SURROUNDING DRY MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SEEM TO BE THE LIMITING FACTORS PREVENTING THE DEPRESSION FROM
ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN ABOUT DAY OR SO THAT THE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS OCCURS SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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