082
WTPZ44 KNHC 062037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
300 PM CST WED NOV 06 2024
FOURTEEN-E IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAVE WARMED LEAVING A
SMALL, ISOLATED BURST OF CONVECTION OVER 70 MILES WEST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
20-22 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR
THIS CYCLE.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED FORWARD SPEED
OF 5 KT. ON THURSDAY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR-SURFACE FLOW AND MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL
MOTION INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED BY QUITE A BIT TO THE EAST DUE TO THE MORE ACCURATE INITIAL
POSITION PROVIDED BY THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. IT LIES CLOSEST TO THE
SIMPLE CONSENSUS AID, TVCE.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SEEM TO
BE PREVENTING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM ORGANIZING FURTHER.
SHIPS FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY THIS CYCLE.
INSTEAD OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW PREDICTING THE SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE-TO-STRONG. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED DOWNWARD AS A RESULT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO ONLY SHOW A DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IF
THE SYSTEM CAN REGAIN DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN ITS
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 13.5N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.4N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 11.6N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 11.0N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 10.8N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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