720
WTNT33 KNHC 062047
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
400 PM EST WED NOV 06 2024
..RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA
...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO, ARTEMISA, LA HABANA, MAYABEQUE,
MATANZAS, AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA, AND CIENFUEGOS
* LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO WEST OF THE
CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* DRY TORTUGAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA THIS EVENING, AND
EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE RAFAEL MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA. SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST WHILE RAFAEL CROSSES WESTERN CUBA, BUT THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM). A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH (72 KM/H) WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
THE HAVANA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE RAFAEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER
WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT3.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA THROUGH THE EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL: HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 12
INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE RAFAEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS AS MUCH AS 9 TO
14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA, INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY
DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING
INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
DRY TORTUGAS...1-3 FT
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...1-2 FT
TORNADOES: A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA MAINLAND.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM EST.
FORECASTER BROWN
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