552
WTNT43 KNHC 062049
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
400 PM EST WED NOV 06 2024
THE RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE EYE BECOMING
QUITE DISTINCT AROUND MIDDAY IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FLY A
COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 104 KT AND AN EXTRAPOLATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 956 MB. THE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE LIKELY LOCATED.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 100 KT ON THE
1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS UW/CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES, AND UW/CIMSS SATCON WHICH PEAKED NEAR THAT VALUE. OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS IT APPEARS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
UNDERWAY AS THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY,
AND RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN THE EROSION OF THE SMALLER INNER-EYEWALL.
WITH THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT ONGOING, LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE RAFAEL MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
STORM CROSSES CUBA, BUT RAFAEL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAKENING. AS
NOTED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT TAKE RAFAEL SOUTHWESTWARD
LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE LESS HOSTILE. IF ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST ARE NEEDED ON
SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES, IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME MODEST UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONGER-RANGE INTENSITY MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/11 KT. RAFAEL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL
TO TURN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY 72
HOURS, THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN, WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION THAN MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE SOUTHWARD AND
SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED AS SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS REGION, WHERE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE EXPECTED.
2. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
3. RAFAEL WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.
4. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER BROWN
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