105
WTPZ44 KNHC 070246
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
900 PM CST WED NOV 06 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FAILED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER FROM 1800 UTC TO 0000 UTC, BUT
RECENTLY, SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SHOWED
THAT THE CIRCULATION JUST BARELY MET THE DEFINITION OF BEING
CONSIDERED WELL-DEFINED, WITH 20-25 KT WIND VECTORS SEEN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM OCEAN
TEMPERATURES BUT MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AND IS UNLIKELY TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
IN FACT, MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION OPENING UP INTO A
TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 H. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 24-36 H.
LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 H UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. A MINOR
SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST, CLOSER
TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.7N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 11.9N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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