455
WTNT43 KNHC 070252
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1000 PM EST WED NOV 06 2024
THE EYE OF RAFAEL MADE LANDFALL JUST AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 100 KT. SINCE THEN, THE
CENTER HAS CROSSED WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO, AND A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED SOME WEAKENING. REPORTS FROM NOAA
AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO NEAR 969 MB, AND THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 KT. IN ADDITION, RADAR DATA FROM
CUBA AND THE KEY WEST WSR-88D SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAS
DECAYED, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11. RAFAEL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT AFTER 72 H. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING CAUGHT IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF AND UKMET
FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BE MORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BETWEEN RAFAEL AND THE TROUGH, AND THUS TURN THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE TRACKS THAT
SUPPORT BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES. GIVEN THE SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY, THIS LOW-CONFIDENCE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION CLOSE THE THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN
ABOUT 24 H, THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IF IT TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF WILL BE QUITE
DRY, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN IF THE SYSTEM
STAYS OVER THE WARM WATER. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH MORE HOSTILE TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
OVERALL TREND OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT THE GUIDANCE ITSELF HAS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD.
SINCE THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAS DECAYED AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA, THERE WILL BE NO MORE HOURLY UPDATES FOR
RAFAEL. THREE-HOURLY PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WHILE RAFAEL IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA, A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION WHERE A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
3. HURRICANE RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
WESTERN CUBA INTO THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
4. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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