785
WTNT33 KNHC 070545
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
100 AM EST THU NOV 07 2024
..CENTER OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA
...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA
OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO, ARTEMISA, LA HABANA, AND
MAYABEQUE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO WEST OF THE
CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* DRY TORTUGAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH THIS GENERAL
MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAFAEL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. RAFAEL IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE RAFAEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER
WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT3.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
DRY TORTUGAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, LEADING TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. THIS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE RAFAEL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT3.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA SHOULD
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY
DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING
INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
DRY TORTUGAS...1-3 FT
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...1-2 FT
TORNADOES: A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM EST.
FORECASTER PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page