435
WTPZ44 KNHC 070841
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
300 AM CST THU NOV 07 2024
THE DEPRESSION HAS FINALLY MANAGED TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION,
MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, DURING THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT. A PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 0410 UTC
DEPICTED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, THUS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEGENERATE AND OPEN INTO A
TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER
THAN FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE
TRENDS AND NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN 24 H.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
ESTIMATED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AROUND 110/02 KT. A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS, WHICH LIES
NEAR THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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