769
WTPZ44 KNHC 071449
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
900 AM CST THU NOV 07 2024
THE DEPRESSION IS ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT HAVE
DISSIPATED, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEARING AN AREA OF
CONVECTION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. FURTHERMORE, THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE ADJACENT THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE
DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TAFB DVORAK FINAL-T HAS
ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD TO T1.5, REFLECTING THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT A POSSIBLY GENEROUS
25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL TO HOSTILE AND
PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT
THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD OPEN INTO A TROUGH WITHIN A DAY, THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION OCCURRING BY FRIDAY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN 110/4 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHEAST SOON. THE
NHC TRACK POSITION IS NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID, HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page