054
WTNT43 KNHC 072035
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
300 PM CST THU NOV 07 2024
RAFAEL HAS MADE A RESURGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE HAS
APPARENTLY MIXED OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR FROM EARLIER TODAY AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH A RAGGED EYE THAT HAS EMERGED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MORE COHESIVE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING ITS CENTER. ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE EYE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON, THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN SEVERAL MILLIBARS FROM EARLIER PASSES.
THEY ALSO REPORTED A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 100 KT, WITH A PEAK OF 107 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT
RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KT. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE RAFAEL THIS EVENING.
THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE COULD MAKE IT MORE RESILIENT
TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE NEAR
TERM, SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR WEAKENING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AS RAFAEL MOVES INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR BY THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPDATED NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH 24 H
AND DOWNWARD AT LATER FORECAST TIMES, BUT STILL LIES NEAR OR ABOVE
THE SIMPLE- AND CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AIDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AND LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
RAFAEL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (295/8 KT) AROUND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH, THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER, WITH LARGER THAN NORMAL
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS. MANY OF THE MODELS (INCLUDING
THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS) SLOW RAFAEL DOWN
AND TURN IT SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW
A SLOW NORTHWARD TURN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST THIS CYCLE, WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE FORMER SCENARIO.
HOWEVER, FUTURE LARGER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE
REQUIRED. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY, RAFAEL
WOULD ENCOUNTER A STRONGER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY WEAKEN
FASTER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
2. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 24.7N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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