734  
WTNT43 KNHC 080559  
TCDAT3  
 
HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024  
1200 AM CST FRI NOV 08 2024  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THAT RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WRAP  
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WITH COLD CLOUD  
TOPS NEAR -85 C. GLM SATELLITE DATA SHOWS LIGHTNING IS OCCURING IN  
THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES  
HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND RANGE FROM 100  
TO 115 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE DEPICTION AND THESE  
ESTIMATES THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT, WHICH REQUIRED  
THE SPECIAL ADVISORY. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE  
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER  
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8 KT, AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 H OR SO AS  
RAFAEL IS STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THERE WERE NO  
CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
RAFAEL IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND  
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE CURRENT  
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE  
TODAY, AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT TERM  
THROUGH 36 H GIVEN THE CURRENT HIGHER INTENSITY. AFTER THAT,  
WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, AND WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT  
LIKELY TO BE STRONG IT SHOULD HELP ADVECT VERY DRY AIR INTO THE  
CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO STEADILY WEAKEN, AND THE  
LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS AND LIES NEAR  
THE CONSENSUS AIDS BEYOND 48 H.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING  
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS.  
 
2. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF  
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN  
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS  
SYSTEM.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH  
12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH  
24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH  
36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH  
48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH  
60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH  
72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH  
96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH  
120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH  
 

 
FORECASTER KELLY  
 
 
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