458
WTNT43 KNHC 082033
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
300 PM CST FRI NOV 08 2024
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT RAFAEL IS GRADUALLY LOSING STRENGTH
AND ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RAGGED, AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE. A BLEND
OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 85 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RAFAEL THIS EVENING, AND THAT DATA WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE HURRICANE'S INTENSITY. ASCAT DATA
AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION INDICATE THAT RAFAEL IS A
VERY COMPACT HURRICANE, WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED TO EXTEND ONLY 80 N MI AND 25 N MI
FROM THE CENTER, RESPECTIVELY.
EVEN THOUGH RAFAEL REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
SATURDAY, AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. THIS PREDICTION IS IN
LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS.
RAFAEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD LEAVE RAFAEL IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF DURING THAT TIME. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAK AND
SHALLOW, A TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS, THEY ALL AGREE THAT
RAFAEL WILL REMAIN OVER WATER AND NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT LAND.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
2. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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