893
WTNT43 KNHC 090234
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
900 PM CST FRI NOV 08 2024
RAFAEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT INVESTIGATED THE
CYCLONE A FEW HOURS AGO REPORTED MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 69 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
RISEN TO THE 985-990 MB RANGE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
EYEWALL STRUCTURE HAD DISINTEGRATED AND THAT THE 700-MB CENTER WAS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW SOUTHWEST OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE LIKELY
CONTINUED WEAKENING SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MISSION, RAFAEL IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
THIS VALUE IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE.
EVEN THOUGH RAFAEL REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOME AFTER 48 H,
THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A
COMEBACK. THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS IN SHOWING RAFAEL
WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 60 H AND DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA SOON AFTER THAT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/4 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER IT LOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO. AFTER THAT, THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER, ALTHOUGH NOT UNANIMOUS, AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE A SMALL LOOP OR HAIRPIN TURN AND WIND
UP MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. THE
NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SOMEWHAT-SPREAD
CONSENSUS MODELS AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER 36 H.
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, RAFAEL IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT ON LAND AREAS. HOWEVER,
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE HIGH SURF ALONG THE
COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
2. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 24.8N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 25.0N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 25.3N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 25.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 24.4N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 23.4N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 22.0N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 20.5N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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