715
FZNT25 KNHC 090319
OFFN04
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI, FL
1019 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
...PLEASE REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS (CWF) AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR DETAILED
COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS...
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 89.9W
AT 09/0300 UTC OR 210 NM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT
4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ADDITIONAL
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTER THAT, RAFAEL IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO 25.0N 90.7W SAT MORNING, 25.3N 91.5W SAT
EVENING, 25.6N 91.8W SUN MORNING, 25.1N 91.8W SUN EVENING,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 24.4N 91.9W MON MORNING,
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 23.4N 92.2W MON EVENING.
RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 22.0N
92.7W LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN WED.
TONIGHT
E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
SAT
E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SAT NIGHT
E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
SUN
E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SUN NIGHT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
MON
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
MON NIGHT
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
TUE
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
TUE NIGHT
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
WED
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
SYNOPSIS
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY, OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES, TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS,
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND EASTERN CUBA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE NEXT 7
DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS ON SAT, REACHING 23N SUN MORNING, THEN WILL STALL
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG 20N MON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF 27N, AND NE TO E 15 TO
20 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SAT
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SAT NIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 27N, AND E 20 TO
25 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SUN
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 27N, AND E 20 TO 25 KT N OF
27N. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SUN NIGHT
E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
MON
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF 27N, AND SE 15 TO 20 KT N OF
27N. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
MON NIGHT
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF 27N, AND SE TO S 10 TO
15 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
TUE
S OF 27N, E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, SHIFTING TO NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. N OF 27N, N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
TUE NIGHT
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF 27N, AND NE 15 TO 20 KT N
OF 27N. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
WED
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 27N, AND NE 20 TO 25 KT N OF
27N. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
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