006
AXNT20 KNHC 090613
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC SAT NOV 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL:
RAFAEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N
89.9W AT 09/0300 UTC OR 210 NM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO, AND DRIFTING
WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS NEAR THE
CENTER RANGE FROM 29 TO 31 FT. SEAS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER
RANGE FROM 15 TO 28 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR AND UP TO 130 NM IN A NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE
FROM THE CENTER. A SLOW WNW MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE A TURN TOWARD THE SSW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AROUND THE GULF COAST. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST RAFAEL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO A MONSOON TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SURGE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, SPORADIC CONVECTION IS FLARING UP
IN BOTH PLACES. A BOARD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH ON SATURDAY, WHICH MIGHT STRENGTHEN INTO A CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENHANCE WIDESPREAD
DEEP CONVECTION, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 (150 TO 305 MM) INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT BOTH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PANAMA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHWESTERN PANAMA. FOR COSTA RICA, 6 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH POSSIBLE 12 TO
20 INCHES (305 TO 510 MM) AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER AGENCY
FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 65W FROM SOUTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WEST
AROUND 5 KT. ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. AN
ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SIERRA LEONE-
LIBERIA BORDER ACROSS 05N25W TO 06N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 230 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
WEST OF 20W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
NEAR PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT TROPICAL STORM
RAFAEL.
OUTSIDE THE DIRECT IMPACT OF RAFAEL, FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY
NEAR-GALE ENE TO ESE WINDS WITH 10 TO 14 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG SE
TO WSW WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 8 FT SEAS EXIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE N TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 10 FT IN LARGE EASTERLY
SWELL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO 25.0N 90.7W SAT
MORNING, 25.3N 91.5W SAT EVENING AND THEN 25.6N 91.8W SUN
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO 25.1N 91.8W SUN EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 24.4N 91.9W MON MORNING,
AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 23.4N 92.2W MON
EVENING. RAFAEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
22.0N 92.7W LATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND RELATED TROUGH CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING SIMILAR CONVECTION NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO
6 FT ARE PRESENT NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES, ON THE LEE OF CUBA AND
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT
SEAS ARE SEEN AT THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. MAINLY GENTLE EASTERLY
WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS OCCURRING
THROUGH THE PASSAGES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SAT AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE BASIN. FRESH NE WINDS
OCCURRING ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD,
MODERATE TO LARGE N SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS MON THROUGH WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A SHEAR LINE FRAGMENT
REACHES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 19N38W TO 24N65W. PATCHY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 100 NM NORTH
OF THIS FEATURE. A 1016 MB LOW WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N23W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A 1022 MB HIGH SOUTH OF
THE AZORES NEAR 31N33W TO THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
MODERATE N SWELL NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MODERATE E SWELL EXIST NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 65W AND THE GEORGIA-NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST. TO THE SOUTH,
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT
FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND THE BAHAMAS. FOR THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT
6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS DOMINATE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 30W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO SE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE BAHAMAS, AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF TROPICAL FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND NEXT 7 DAYS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF 31N ON SAT, REACHING 23N SUN
MORNING, THEN WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG 20N MON.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. N SWELL WILL REACH THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS
MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E
TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
CHAN
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