303
WTNT43 KNHC 090843
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
300 AM CST SAT NOV 09 2024
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO BURST DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS
IMPACTED THE SYMMETRY OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AS AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED EARLIER, AND WAS FURTHER CONFIRMED BY A
SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 0230 UTC. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MICROWAVE
PASSES TONIGHT TO ASSIST WITH THE STORM STRUCTURE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHER THAN THE FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA, AS THEY STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP
WITH THE RAPID WEAKENING. GIVEN SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO DISRUPT THE
CIRCULATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, WHICH IS NEAR THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS WHICH WILL HELP BETTER ASSESS THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY.
RAFAEL REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO,
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR IMPACTING THE STORMS
STRUCTURE. WHILE THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOME AFTER 36 H, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT AROUND THE SAME TIME WHICH
WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
STEADY WEAKENING AND FOLLOWS THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOWING
RAFAEL BECOMING A DEPRESSION BY 48 H AND DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA SOON AFTER THAT, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/5 KT. A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IT SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H. AFTER THAT, THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM MEANDERING
AND EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FLOW AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST WAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE LATEST SIMPLE AND CORRECTED-CONSENSUS
AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 25.0N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.1N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.3N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 23.9N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 21.0N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 19.6N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page