246
AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SAT NOV 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL, AT 09/1500 UTC, IS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, CLOSE TO 25.2N 91.5W. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WNW, OR 290 DEGREES, 05 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE WITHIN: 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT; 60 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT; 20 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW
QUADRANT; AND 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE SEA
HEIGHTS OF 12 FEET OR GREATER ARE WITHIN: 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NE QUADRANT; 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT; 90 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT; AND 210 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW
QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT VALUE IS 23 FEET. EXPECT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO: FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN E TO SE
SWELL. EXPECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 23N TO
29N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W: WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS, AND ROUGH SEAS IN
E TO SE SWELL. PRECIPITATION: NUMEROUS STRONG IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS IN A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED 100 NM WIDE BAND,
THAT 18N IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA, TO 27N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO;
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 95W EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
IS PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 30N94W, TO
25N97W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
WITHIN 75 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N NORTHWARD.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS, THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, AT THE WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP, FOR MORE
INFORMATION. PLEASE, REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY, AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT IS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 12N70W
IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM
74W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, TO HAITI, TO 13N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND IN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM
67W WESTWARD. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES TO 12 INCHES (FROM 150 MM TO 305 MM) ARE ANTICIPATED IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PANAMA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SW PANAMA. AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 INCHES TO 12 INCHES
(FROM 150 MM TO 305 MM) ARE POSSIBLE IN COSTA RICA IN GENERAL. THE
POSSIBLE RANGE OF 12 INCHES TO 20 INCHES (FROM 305 MM TO 510 MM)
IS FOR THE SE COASTAL AREA OF COSTA RICA. THIS INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK
METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE, REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER BUREAU FOR
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W, FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD 05 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS. MODERATE WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST POINT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE; AND WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST POINT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 60W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION:
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 930 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE, AND WITHIN 270 NM TO THE WEST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N12W, TO 08N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N14W, TO
06N30W AND 06N51W. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 51W EASTWARD.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE AWAY FROM
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 1500 UTC,
OR 250 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN MORNING, THEN MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAFAEL WILL MOVE TO NEAR 25.4N 91.8W THIS EVENING, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 25.7N 92.1W SUN EVENING, BECOME A REMNANT
LOW NEAR 23.6N 92.4W MON EVENING, THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT SW AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE
WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IN COSTA RICA AND IN PANAMA.
MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM 70W EASTWARD. SLIGHT SEAS ARE FROM 70W
WESTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE 13N74W 11N77W 09N79W NEAR THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 09/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.75 IN GUADELOUPE; 0.24 IN CURACAO; 0.11 IN
KINGSTON IN JAMAICA; 0.08 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA; 0.04 IN
ACAPULCO IN MEXICO; AND 0.03 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO. THIS
INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH THE PASSAGES
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SHIFTS SLOWLY W ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO LARGE N SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS MON THROUGH WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLOSE TO 29N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 13N TO 27N FROM 54W
EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 09/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.01 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS; AND 0.01 IN
BERMUDA. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM THE ITCZ TO 15N
BETWEEN 34W AND 52W. FRESH SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS THAT ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N BETWEEN 30W
AND 58W. FRESH TO MODERATE SE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. FRESH NE WINDS ARE FROM 15N TO 21N FROM 30W
EASTWARD.
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES: MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS
FROM 6 FEET TO 8 FEET IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SW WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 4 FEET TO 6 FEET IN
MIXED MODERATE SWELLS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN
WEST OF 30W.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF A TROUGH, LOCATED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
25N70W, WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
DRIFTS W, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES, TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TODAY, REACHING 23N SUN MORNING, THEN
WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG 20N MON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N
SWELL NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. N SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN
MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MT/SS
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