404
FZNT25 KNHC 092124
OFFN04
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI, FL
424 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
...PLEASE REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS (CWF) AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR DETAILED
COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS...
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 91.7W
AT 2100 UTC, OR 275 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT
4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SLOW AND
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUN MORNING, THEN TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAFAEL WILL
MOVE TO NEAR 25.7N 91.9W AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, REACH NEAR
26.0N 91.8W SUN AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 25.7N
91.4W AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN, THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED, THEN WEAKEN
WED NIGHT AND THU AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
BASIN.
TONIGHT
E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SUN
E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SUN NIGHT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
MON
NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
MON NIGHT
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
TUE
NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
TUE NIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
WED
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
WED NIGHT
E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
THU
E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
THU NIGHT
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
SYNOPSIS
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A TROUGH, LOCATED FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 25N69W, WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS
W, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES, TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS,
AND EASTERN CUBA THROUGH MON BEFORE QUICKLY WEAKENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS
THIS EVENING, AND WILL REACH 25N SUN MORNING, ALONG 20N MON
MORNING, THEN WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG 19N MON
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
N SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON MORNING AND THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TONIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 27N, AND E 20 TO 25 KT
N OF 27N. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SUN
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 27N, AND E 20 TO 25 KT N OF
27N. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.
SUN NIGHT
E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT S OF 27N, AND E TO SE 15 TO
20 KT N OF 27N. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS.
MON
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
MON NIGHT
E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
TUE
N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
TUE NIGHT
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
WED
NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
WED NIGHT
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
THU
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
THU NIGHT
SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL.
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