497
WTNT43 KNHC 100232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
900 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2024
RAFAEL REMAINS SHEARED THIS EVENING, WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF IS BROAD AND APPEARS TO HAVE MULTIPLE
SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EMBEDDED IN IT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND
NORTHWEST OF BUOY 42001.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SLOW 325/3. DURING THE NEXT 36 H OR SO,
RAFAEL SHOULD MAKE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. ONE CHANGE IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS THAT THAT THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS TURN THE
SYSTEM MOVE WESTWARD AFTER 60 H AND WIND UP TO THE NORTH OF THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS LITTLE CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
RAFAEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 24-36 H, WITH THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED. BASED ON THIS, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA BY 36 H, WITH FINAL DISSIPATION BY 120 H AS SUGGESTED
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
RAFAEL POSES NO DIRECT THREAT TO LAND, BUT SWELLS FROM THE STORM ARE
STILL CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST. ALSO, THE INTERACTION OF DISTANT
MOISTURE FROM RAFAEL WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 25.7N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 26.0N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 25.3N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 24.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 22.8N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 21.4N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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