311
AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL, AT 10/1500 UTC, IS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, CLOSE TO 26.3N 91.9W. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NNW, OR 345 DEGREES, 03 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE WITHIN: 130 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT; 130 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT; 0 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW
QUADRANT; AND 0 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.
THE SEA HEIGHTS OF 12 FEET OR GREATER ARE WITHIN:
135 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT; 0 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SE QUADRANT; 0 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT; AND 105 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT VALUE IS 14
FEET. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO: ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO
28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS, AND ROUGH
SEAS IN SE SWELL. EXPECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W: WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS, AND
ROUGH SEAS IN E TO SE SWELL. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 84W WESTWARD.
PLEASE, VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV, FOR MORE DETAILS.
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS FROM HISPANIOLA WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N77W,
BEYOND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
17N79W, TO JAMAICA AND SE CUBA, 24.5N 72.5W 1011 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS, ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION: RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W WESTWARD. A CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG)
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
INTERNATIONAL DESK METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE, REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER BUREAU FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W, FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD 05 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS. MODERATE WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST POINT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE; AND WITHIN 360 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST POINT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 60W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION:
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
64W AND 72W. MORE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE, AND WITHIN 420 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA LEONE CLOSE TO 09N13W, TO 05N20W
03N30W AND 04N42W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS FROM 01N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 56W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 91.9W AT 1500 UTC,
OR 320 NM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING NNW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING NEAR 26.4N 91.3W
THIS EVENING AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING NEAR 25.9N 90.8W AS A REMNANT LOW
MON MORNING, NEAR 24.1N 91.8W TUE MORNING, THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF ON WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS WEEK, REINFORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IN COSTA RICA AND IN PANAMA.
MOSTLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 18N NORTHWARD TO
CUBA, IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. AN EXCEPTION IS FOR FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 81W; AND FRESH
SE WINDS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. MODERATE OR
SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE
SEAS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 10/1200 UTC, ARE: 1.07 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO; 0.63 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS; 0.14 IN ACAPULCO IN MEXICO; 0.13 IN
CURACAO; 0.07 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA; AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE.
THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTH- CENTRAL
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE, WITH AND BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF
CUBA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TODAY,
WHILE FRESH WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND MONA
PASSAGE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND STALLS ALONG ABOUT 19N MON EVENING. LARGE N
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON
THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA ON WED, AND ACROSS THE NW BASIN AND
HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU, LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS BEHIND IT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N48W, TO 25N60W 26N70W, BEYOND THE
EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AT 28N, TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N79W, TO JAMAICA
AND SE CUBA, TO A 24.5N 72.5W 1011 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS
IN E SWELL, ARE FROM THE 24.5N 72.5W LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE FROM PUERTO RICO
TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. STRONG AND FASTER NW WINDS ARE FROM
30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 66W. STRONG AND FASTER SW WINDS ARE
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT, FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND
THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS WITHIN 360 NM TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM BETWEEN 39W AND 56W.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE BETWEEN 24N21W 18N36W 15N51W
AND 07N52W 04N42W 02N19W. FRESH SE WINDS ARE FROM THE ITCZ
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF AFRICA ALONG 12N17W 20N18W 30N18W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 33N22W 29N24W 26N28W. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE
SURROUNDING THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE OR SLOWER
WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
MODERATE SEAS ARE FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. MODERATE
SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREAS THAT FROM 18N TO 24N
BETWEEN 40W AND THE BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS IN MIXED LARGE SWELLS ARE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 10/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.02 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS
INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF A 1011 MB LOW, CENTERED NEAR 24.5N72.5W.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG SPEEDS TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES
W AND WEAKENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MON,
REACHING ALONG 23N THIS EVENING, AND ALONG 19N-20N BY MON BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING THROUGH TUE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL TO
FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE. N
SWELL WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN MON MORNING AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUE EVENING WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND WEST OF 55W BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK.
MT/SS
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