130
AXNT20 KNHC 110609
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC MON NOV 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA:
PERSISTENT SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A
CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 68W FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 KT. ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT, SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC, MONA PASSAGE, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH IS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. AN ITCZ
CURVES WESTWARD FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE
THROUGH 05N36W TO 09N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND UP TO 150 NM NORTH, AND 80 NM SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ WEST OF 21W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORMING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS NORTHEASTWARD
TO BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FARTHER SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH
REACHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF RAFAEL NEAR 27N91W
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF. FRESH TO
STRONG NNE TO E TO SSE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W. MODERATE ESE TO SE WINDS AND
3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW TO SW WINDS AND SEAS
AT 3 TO 6 FT PREVAIL THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND REACH NEAR 25.1N 90.7W MIDDAY MON. THEN,
IT WILL REACH NEAR 23.2N 92W MIDDAY TUE, BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON WED AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON THU AND
REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN. CONVERGENT E TO ESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT
ARE PRESENT AT THE WEST-CENTRAL, SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING HISPANIOLA, AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN AND WATERS
SOUTH OF JAMAICA THROUGH FRIDAY, OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH SW WINDS OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A
TAIL END NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 23N67W WILL STALL NORTH
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ALONG ABOUT 19N-20N ON MON. LARGE N SWELL
GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES MON AFTERNOON AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS MON
EVENING AND NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN ON WED,
STALLING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF AZORES ACROSS
31N42W, THEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A
1013 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR AND UP TO 120 NM
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE. A SURFACE TROUGH
RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 23N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT IN LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL ARE DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR AND BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG SE TO SW WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT EAST OF THE
SAME COLD FRONT, NORTH OF 25N TO NEAR 32W. TO THE SOUTH, GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 6 FT ARE FOUND FROM 20N
TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 10N TO 18N/20N BETWEEN 30W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 30W, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
28N AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY TUE EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST MON NIGHT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE EVENING, AND FROM 31N55W TO NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO WATERS WED EVENING AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A THIRD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI, AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 27N
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CHAN
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