049
AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC MON NOV 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
..EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN COSTA RICA AND IN PANAMA
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW NOW IS CONFINED TO THE AREAS THAT
ARE FROM 83W WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N76W, BEYOND
10N84W IN COSTA RICA BORDER, AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO
MODERATE SW WINDS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, TO
17N83W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, ARE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION:
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM
74W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 80W WESTWARD. A
CENTRAL AMERICA GYRE (CAG) WILL WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S
INTERNATIONAL DESK METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE, REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER BUREAU FOR DETAILS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL
LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
EXPECT, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO: STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
35W AND 71W. EXPECT ALSO: WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS, AND ROUGH SEAS,
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EXPOSURES, BETWEEN 35W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO: FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W: WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS, AND ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE, REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITES: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP, FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W, FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD 05 KNOTS TO 10 KNOTS. MOSTLY
MODERATE TO SOME FRESH SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE TO THE EAST
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION: NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 13N
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 80W EASTWARD.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA CLOSE TO 09N13W, TO 06N20W 05N30W
03N40W 06N50W 08N58W. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 18W AND 60W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
THE 1006 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF RAFAEL IS CLOSE TO
27.5N 89.5W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WITHIN 165 NM TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER; AND WITHIN 135 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 210
NM TO THE EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, AND WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE SW OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ROUGH SEAS ARE FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 97W. MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
IS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 89W.
LOW PRESSURE, THE REMNANT OF RAFAEL, WILL DRIFT SW FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF STARTING TUE NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS LATE ON WED
AND PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
THE NE GULF ON THU AND REACH THE SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IN COSTA RICA AND IN PANAMA.
MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA.
SLIGHT SEAS ARE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 11/1200 UTC, ARE: 2.82 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS;
2.07 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO; 0.41 IN GUADELOUPE; 0.28 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA; AND 0.02 IN CURACAO. THIS INFORMATION IS
FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA, AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND S JAMAICA ADJACENT WATERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVER
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCTIVE FOR SOME GRADUALLY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LOW LATE THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH TAIL N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR
22N67W WILL STALL NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ALONG ABOUT
19N-20N BY THIS EVENING. LARGE N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N37W, TO 25N40W 21N43W 20N50W
20N56W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 20N56W, AND IT CONTINUES
TO 23N70W AND 26N73W. THE FRONT BECOMES WARM FROM 26N73W TO 29N77W,
TO A 1012 MB 27N78W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER, BEYOND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SIDE OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W. PRECIPITATION: BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
31N35W 25N40W 20N48W 17N58W 18N64W 25N73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM
17N NORTHWARD FROM THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. ROUGH SEAS ARE FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.
STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. FRESH NE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE ITCZ TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W;
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W; AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
23W AND 32W. MOSTLY FRESH TO SOME STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 25N
NORTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD. MODERATE OR SLOWER WINDS ARE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES, FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 11/1200 UTC, ARE: 0.39 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS
INFORMATION IS FROM THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES/MIATPTPAN.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF 27N AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY TUE EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS TUE EVENING, AND FROM 31N55W TO NE
PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS WED EVENING, THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA
BY THU EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. A THIRD
FRONT MAY ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MT/SK
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