565
AXNT20 KNHC 130607
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC WED NOV 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVEST AREA AL99:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 76W FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD ACROSS A 1008
MB LOW (AL99) TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 5 KT. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 13N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN
HAITI THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT COULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ON
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA:
MOIST CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK
METEOROLOGISTS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR COUNTRY'S NATIONAL WEATHER
BUREAU FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A TROPICAL WAVE
RELATED TO AL99 AT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N18W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N18W ACROSS 06N35W TO 08N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N
TO 08N BETWEEN THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA COAST AND 18W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING UP TO 150 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
EAST OF 40W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
AN ELONGATED 1007 MB LOW, REMNANTS OF RAFAEL NEAR 26N90W IS
CAUSING PATCHY SHOWERS AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT ARE SEEN
AT THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO E WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF RAFAEL WILL MEANDER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF AND DISSIPATING WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE LOW WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THU, INCREASING TO
STRONG AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS WED AND WED
NIGHT. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THU AND EXIT THE GULF THU NIGHT. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT INVEST AREA AL99
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN HONDURAS ACROSS A
1007 MB LOW AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE TIP OF WESTERN CUBA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
AT THE LEE OF CUBA, INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT ON AL99, STRONG TO
NEAR GALE- FORCE WINDS, ROUGH SEAS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1010 MB LOW SOUTH
OF THE AZORES ACROSS 31N30W TO 20N62W, THEN CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N68W. PATCHY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE
EVIDENT NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND THE GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. FARTHER EAST, FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 65W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SSE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 7 FT ARE FOUND FROM 20N
TO 27N/28N BETWEEN 52W AND THE BAHAMAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO
SE WINDS WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL DOMINATE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 09N TO 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO ESE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS EXIST. FOR
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 30W, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WITH LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO 29N WILL BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA WED
MORNING AND THEN EXIT THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THU
NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH OF 31N EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT INTO FRI, AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NORTH OF 27N WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
CHAN
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